As a forewarning, this post has nothing to do with sports. Believe it or not, from time to time I pay attention to things other than sports and can't help but analyze it. Being an economics major, the effect of abstract things like the weather, consumer opinion, and pretty much any other external influence on the economy is something I always seem to find interest in. Recent meteorological events got me thinking about the effect of the weather on the economy, so when another huge storm was forecasted for today, my interest was piqued to say the least. When said storm didn't cover a single roadway in my region with snow as of yet, it really got me thinking.
Aside from the sports, winter sucks. When I was young, I used to buy into the "it's wonderful to have four seasons" concept. In the midst of my 24th winter, I have reached the point where I hate winter. Despise it. Sure, one nice snowfall and all the fun things that come with it is great, but the 3-4 months of bone chilling cold isn't worth it.
Obviously, I'm not in any position to up and move to California, but one can dream. So I will continue to brave the elements and pray for spring. One thing that I will not continue to stand for, however, is these local news stations looking to boost ratings based on the threat a winter storm. This week, I was told to prepare for a "snowurricane", and I was ready for some ridiculous stuff. I expected not to be able to leave my house until at least Friday evening. I charged my phone as the power was obviously going to go out due to 90 mph wind gusts. I parked on a side street as I've learned that it is much easier to shovel out of, and maintain as your own, a side street parking spot. I was ready for these things because the news told me to be.
Granted, this winter has been unlike any ever seen before in this region and, generally, the news has been pretty accurate with their coverage of the monster storms that continue to pummel the region. Today's "snowurricane" harkens back to winters' past, however. Every year, there are numerous "dud" storms that were hyped up to be major winter events. Local news stations expand coverage, announcing round-the-clock coverage of the coming storm. Forecasters present computer generated possibilities, focusing on the worst-case scenario because, well, everyone wants to hear the worst-case scenario. People do ridiculous things like stock up on imperishable foods because, this time, we might not be able to get out for days! Today, at the sign of the first flake, schools closed, businesses sent people home early, and undoubtedly thousands of municipal workers were called in to work more overtime hours that municipalities simply cannot afford. I expended it to be downright insane for anyone to be on the road past 1 pm if the forecasts were to hold true.
Then, 1pm hit and the roads were clear. Don't worry, I was assured by the forecasters, you will need to lock yourself in your house by 3pm because it's going to be the craziest stuff you've ever seen... 3pm... clear roads. "Rush hour will be nuts!," they said. Rush hour... nothing. Here I sit, at 11pm, 10 HOURS after it was going to be completely unsafe to operate a vehicle, and the street outside my house shows no sign of snow.
In the midst of what has become a budget crisis for cities and municipalities across the country, predatory forecasting cannot be tolerated. The trumped up forecasts, ratings boons for the local news, cause a great amount of economic strain on regions already stretched to their limit. I call it predatory forecasting because the stations deliberately focus on the worst case scenario projections as they know the public will watch and thus, they will make more money than normal. It is predatory as what receives little mention is the projections that show just wet snow and strong winds for the region, cause for concern of course, but not for a complete shutdown, all in the name of profit.
Obviously, this year, things have been crazy, I will give you that. But consider just how much, over a ten year span, the local news stations completely miss forecasts much like today and the region reacts much like today. Some schools didn't even open this morning! Millions of dollars are lost in productivity as many stay home with their kids. As I mentioned earlier, townships and municipalities reach into their tax-payer padded pockets to preemptively call every man possible to work overtime to keep the roads clear, but on days like today, don't work at all. Consider all the money needed to bring these guys in to do nothing that could be spent on much needed infrastructure improvements. The economic effects are innumerable.
Given that the news is just as economically driven as any other industry in this capitalist economy, what can be done to change this? First, hold the news liable, at least in some way. The news, by their own definition, is to be unbiased coverage intended to keep their audience as well informed as possible, not paranoid. Townships and municipalities that lose millions to missed forecasts, especially when more-likely, less-doomsday scenarios are projected but not reported as heavily as the profitable, end-of-the-world forecasts, should be able to fine or sue news stations to recoup some of their losses. Second, require that several projections be reported so that the less profitable ones cannot be simply swept under the rug. Last, as a government, develop a more cohesive, more efficient plan for local reaction to storms that actually do hit. A little coordination can go a long way.
It is obviously highly unlikely that any of this will ever happen. News stations can simply point to the fact that forecasting is an impossible science. 100% is an impossible score. What they don't understand is that I'm not asking for 100%, just a little responsibility. They will claim that giving several possibilities for a forecast will simply confuse the public and cause apathy that will result in a region completely unprepared for a big storm. Sure, that sounds responsible enough, but how responsible is basically causing for there to be millions of dollars wasted across the region more often than preparing the region for an actual event? Governments will hee and haw over creating any kind of efficient, effective plan for weather catastrophes because that's what government in it's current form does.
In the end, the responsibility lies with the public to make these things happen. Create a stir that even the news has to report. Someone research and release data on the amount of money that is actually lost as the result of these irresponsible, profit-driven forecasts. It is now 2010. You cannot tell me it is acceptable for there to be up to 20 inches of snow forecasted, and not have an inch of accumulation. 6 inches off, I can understand. But 20?? If you watch the news, you can see what technology meteorologists have at their disposal. I know they can at least be moderately correct. Let's make them do it because it's what will most likely happen, not because it does or doesn't make a lot of money. Tonight, maybe everything will go absolutely wild and the forecast will have been half right, but no one can get back the day that was wasted today due to unfounded fear.
Dear Spring, hurry up and get here, I'm going crazy. Love, Ian
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
End of an Era, 2010 Edition
The inevitable has happened. The Eagles announced yesterday that they have released Brian Westbrook. No on can say they didn't see this coming. Between the rash of nagging injuries and the $7+ million Westbrook was due to make this season, it was only a matter of time before the Eagles were going to release him. In his time as an Eagle, Westbrook established himself as one of the top runningbacks of his generation and, given his versatility and game-changing ability, may someday be considered for enshrinement in Canton.
For me, the top Brian Westbrook moment had to be in 2003 at the Meadowlands. I remember I was watching that Eagles-Giants game in the "Big O" in Findlay Commons, East Halls, Penn State. Numerous Giants fans were there, taunting us Eagles fans, and McNabb was putting up a stinker of a game. Somehow, B-Dawk and the rest of the Eagles defense kept the Eagles within striking distance and, late in the game, in came Westbrook to return a punt. What ensued was an amazing show of speed and explosiveness and, within seconds, it was we who were doing the taunting and the Giants fans left wondering what happenend. That punt return sparked the Eagles on an amazing run the rest of the season and they finished 12-4 despite starting 2-3. One could say Brian Westbrook saved that season.
Where do the Eagles go from here? Obviously, LeSean McCoy is now "The Man". Keeping in step with the Ian Stancato Memorial "One Year Too Early" award, I expect big things from McCoy next season (the award is named as such due to my ability to draft rookies on my fantasy team who turn in breakout seasons the year after I have them... See: Chris Johnson, frustrating, inconsistent rookie on my fantasy team in '08, best runningback in the league, fantasy and real football, in '09). However, beyond McCoy there are a lot of question marks in the Eagles' backfield. Leonard Weaver is restricted free agent and, while I would be floored if the Eagles let him walk, he is not the final answer. Neither is Eldra Buckley, although his hair is awesome (sidenote - if I were black and either a cornerback, safety, runningback, or wide receiver in the NFL, I would definitely rock that hairstyle). The answer lies somewhere outside the organization.
Rumors have been swirling that the Eagles may be interested in LaDainian Tomlinson. If LT's price tag comes down enough to where it could fit within the Eagles' salary cap, this would be a perfect fit. Obviously, his skills have diminished and he is not what he once was, but LT has mastered protection schemes and can still hit a hole hard enough to be an effective short yardage back. Couple that with the fact that McCoy, while a budding star, could use the mentorship provided by someone who has been there and done that and I think LT is a great fit. Westbrook and LT fall into the same category, guys who could still be effective but just became too expensive for what they could provide. LT has said he wants to go somewhere he could win a championship and, given his stellar public record and persona, I think he and the Eagles could find middle ground to work together on. Aside from the football benefits, word on the street is that the ladies love LT. Since most guys I know love it when girls wear football jerseys, this could have innumerable benefits for all involved (it's the intagibles!!).
Joking aside, LT isn't the only option. There have been rumblings that Thomas Jones could be released by the Jets, though he may be able to command a pretty hefty salary still. Marshawn Lynch may be another possibility if the Bills decide to rid themselves of him, and given Andy Reid's newfound penchant for rehabilitating guys with sketchy pasts, I could see that happening too. All in all, we may not know the answer to this riddle until after the draft has past and the rest of the free agent market dies down a bit, but it's always tough to say goodbye to a guy like Brian Westbrook, who kept his mouth shut and went to work each and every day.
A few non-sports notes........ If I haven't mentioned it before, I was totally engrossed in "Jersey Shore". To me, it was the perfect blend of idiocy, steroids, booze, and brawls. What stinks is that it will be ruined by "Jersey Shore Season 2: the Gang Goes Somewhere Else". If the show didn't already seem somewhat fake and contrived, it will definitely fall into these categories for Season 2. Everyone knows them now so imagine how many dudes are going to want to drukenly test their strength against Ronnie's, get on TV rejecting Snookie, or just flat out make fun of "the Situation". Not to mention they are leaving the Mecca that is Seaside Heights for a warmer destination. Its just going to be like "the Inferno" but with less people... but I'll still watch....... Huge fan of Ke$ha here. She has replaced Cascada as the "artist I secretly listen to at work". I would propose to her.......... I've decided to rewatch "The Wire" and forgot how much I like Wallace. I grimmace even thinking about whats ahead. "BE A MAN!" powerful stuff....
Wanna make some money tonight? Take these:
Temple -4 @ home vs. Dayton
Pitt -1.5 @ ND
Marquette -1.5 @ St John's
Xavier -4.5 @ St. Louis
Arkansas -1.5 @ LSU
Purdue -3 @ Minnesota
That's all for now. Gotta take a personal holiday tomorrow but, if we get as much snow as forecasted, I'll likely be back with somethin' new for ya by the weekend.
Eagles: Retire #36, #12, and #20 immediately. Please.
For me, the top Brian Westbrook moment had to be in 2003 at the Meadowlands. I remember I was watching that Eagles-Giants game in the "Big O" in Findlay Commons, East Halls, Penn State. Numerous Giants fans were there, taunting us Eagles fans, and McNabb was putting up a stinker of a game. Somehow, B-Dawk and the rest of the Eagles defense kept the Eagles within striking distance and, late in the game, in came Westbrook to return a punt. What ensued was an amazing show of speed and explosiveness and, within seconds, it was we who were doing the taunting and the Giants fans left wondering what happenend. That punt return sparked the Eagles on an amazing run the rest of the season and they finished 12-4 despite starting 2-3. One could say Brian Westbrook saved that season.
Where do the Eagles go from here? Obviously, LeSean McCoy is now "The Man". Keeping in step with the Ian Stancato Memorial "One Year Too Early" award, I expect big things from McCoy next season (the award is named as such due to my ability to draft rookies on my fantasy team who turn in breakout seasons the year after I have them... See: Chris Johnson, frustrating, inconsistent rookie on my fantasy team in '08, best runningback in the league, fantasy and real football, in '09). However, beyond McCoy there are a lot of question marks in the Eagles' backfield. Leonard Weaver is restricted free agent and, while I would be floored if the Eagles let him walk, he is not the final answer. Neither is Eldra Buckley, although his hair is awesome (sidenote - if I were black and either a cornerback, safety, runningback, or wide receiver in the NFL, I would definitely rock that hairstyle). The answer lies somewhere outside the organization.
Rumors have been swirling that the Eagles may be interested in LaDainian Tomlinson. If LT's price tag comes down enough to where it could fit within the Eagles' salary cap, this would be a perfect fit. Obviously, his skills have diminished and he is not what he once was, but LT has mastered protection schemes and can still hit a hole hard enough to be an effective short yardage back. Couple that with the fact that McCoy, while a budding star, could use the mentorship provided by someone who has been there and done that and I think LT is a great fit. Westbrook and LT fall into the same category, guys who could still be effective but just became too expensive for what they could provide. LT has said he wants to go somewhere he could win a championship and, given his stellar public record and persona, I think he and the Eagles could find middle ground to work together on. Aside from the football benefits, word on the street is that the ladies love LT. Since most guys I know love it when girls wear football jerseys, this could have innumerable benefits for all involved (it's the intagibles!!).
Joking aside, LT isn't the only option. There have been rumblings that Thomas Jones could be released by the Jets, though he may be able to command a pretty hefty salary still. Marshawn Lynch may be another possibility if the Bills decide to rid themselves of him, and given Andy Reid's newfound penchant for rehabilitating guys with sketchy pasts, I could see that happening too. All in all, we may not know the answer to this riddle until after the draft has past and the rest of the free agent market dies down a bit, but it's always tough to say goodbye to a guy like Brian Westbrook, who kept his mouth shut and went to work each and every day.
A few non-sports notes........ If I haven't mentioned it before, I was totally engrossed in "Jersey Shore". To me, it was the perfect blend of idiocy, steroids, booze, and brawls. What stinks is that it will be ruined by "Jersey Shore Season 2: the Gang Goes Somewhere Else". If the show didn't already seem somewhat fake and contrived, it will definitely fall into these categories for Season 2. Everyone knows them now so imagine how many dudes are going to want to drukenly test their strength against Ronnie's, get on TV rejecting Snookie, or just flat out make fun of "the Situation". Not to mention they are leaving the Mecca that is Seaside Heights for a warmer destination. Its just going to be like "the Inferno" but with less people... but I'll still watch....... Huge fan of Ke$ha here. She has replaced Cascada as the "artist I secretly listen to at work". I would propose to her.......... I've decided to rewatch "The Wire" and forgot how much I like Wallace. I grimmace even thinking about whats ahead. "BE A MAN!" powerful stuff....
Wanna make some money tonight? Take these:
Temple -4 @ home vs. Dayton
Pitt -1.5 @ ND
Marquette -1.5 @ St John's
Xavier -4.5 @ St. Louis
Arkansas -1.5 @ LSU
Purdue -3 @ Minnesota
That's all for now. Gotta take a personal holiday tomorrow but, if we get as much snow as forecasted, I'll likely be back with somethin' new for ya by the weekend.
Eagles: Retire #36, #12, and #20 immediately. Please.
Thursday, February 11, 2010
Phillyphanhood's Top 25
I promised a massive post 2 days ago... 20-some inches of snow, an igloo, and numerous "snow shots" later, I bring you said post. My apologies for the delay.
Listed below are what I believe to be the 25 best teams in the country. My criteria is simply who I believe will make the Sweet 16 + the 9 best teams to lose in the second round. Obviously, between now and March lots can change, but if the tournament were to start today, this is who I expect to make some noise.
1. Kansas - This is an obvious pick. Loaded with talent and proven to be able to handle the pressures of a tight game, this team has to be under consideration for the title game come bracket time. Potential landmine: 3/3 at home against Kansas State. The Wildcats will be looking for revenge after having their first matchup within their grasp in Manhattan.
2. Villanova - A little homerism here? Possibly, but the 'Cats are built for a late March run. Great guard play, a defensive nightmare when they are given the opportunity to swarm, I do not believe we have seen the best Villanova has to offer as of yet. Potential landmine: while a game at Syracuse looms, the 'Cats 2/21 date at Pitt is an extremely tough matchup. Pitt is always a tough place to win.
3. Syracuse - This team is DEEP. 7 players get 20+ minutes and each can take over a game. Having said that, 'Cuse hasn't faced many close calls against good teams. A 1 point win @ WVU is a shining moment, however a 2 point win against Depaul never should have been that close. Potential landmine: 2/18 at G'Town. Sure, a game against Nova is coming up on 2/27, but the Orange first need to get past G'Town on the road. Nova couldn't survive that test, can the Orange?
4. Kentucky - Possibly the most talented team in the nation, the 'Cats lack an unquestioned leader to turn to in trying times. This seems to be a signature of Calipari coached teams, unquestioned talent, questionable leadership. I can tell you one thing, a team with questionable leadership has never hoisted the trophy. Potential landmine: 2/27 @ Tennessee. Kentucky hosts Tennessee this weekend, but playing at Tennessee is obviously a different story as the Vols game against Kansas proved.
5. Purdue - The Big Ten doesn't get much props these days, which is typical for February, however a Big Ten team always seems to make it to the Final Four. This years' threat is Purdue, solid at ever position and extremely physical, no team wants to see the Boilermakers up next on the schedule. Potential landmine: 2/17 @ Ohio State. With Evan Turner healthy, the Buckeyes are a real threat to Purdue.
6. Georgetown - The Hoyas are riding high after knocking off Nova at home last Saturday. A team that is disciplined at both ends of the floor, I cannot imagine them getting rattled come March. Huge concern: depth. The Hoyas rarely play more than 7 or 8 guys a night. Will this come back to haunt them?
7. Kansas State - The Wildcats are fiesty. This team shows as much energy as their coach, Frank Martin, possibly the most animated coach in the country. A tough loss at home against Kansas is really the only thing standing between this team and the top 5. Potential landmine: @ Kansas on 3/3. KSU has a pretty easy remaining schedule aside from this matchup, and with a win, could be looking at a 2 seed.
8. Michigan State - Very few teams can match MSU's physicality and precision. With a healthy Kalin Lucas, I would be hard pressed to bet against the Spartans. Look for this team, as they traditionally do, to come around in the last week of February. Potential landmine: @ Purdue. The Boilermakers already knocked off the Spartans once, but with Kalin Lucas healthy, the Spartans need to win this game to prove themselves to be among the nations elite.
9. West Virginia - Bob Huggins' squad is solid. A loss to Notre Dame is a really ugly blemish on the Mountaineers' record. The question come March is whether this team will fold like so many other of Huggins' teams (see: Cincinnati). Potential landmine: 2/12 @ Pitt. Pitt fans will not be gracious hosts thanks to the well documented trangressions of the Morgantown crowd in these teams' first matchup a week ago. This will be a tough out for WVU.
10. Duke - My dislike of Duke is well documented so, admittedly, this could be a shortsighted ranking, but Duke is what they always are, a fundamentally sound team with great basketball players, but probably not great athletes. I just can't see this team becoming a huge factor come March, but given that they are one of the top teams in a great conference, they deserve their ranking. Potential landmine: 2/28 @ UVA. The Cavaliers will be looking to cement their status as a team to be reckoned with after years of futility. You can bet the Dukies will get their best shot in Charlottesville.
11. Ohio State - Evan Turner is possibly the most underrated player in the country right now. With 2 triple-doubles this season, he is one of the most well-rounded players in the country. If he can remain healthy, OSU will be a tough out come March. Potential landmine: 2/14 @ Illinois. The Illini have been playing solid ball of late and I can guarantee there won't be much love coming the Buckeyes way from the Illini faithful on Valentine's Day.
12. Wisconsin - Bo Ryan always has his team prepped for a late run in March. Wisconsin is traditionally one of the more well-disciplined teams in the country, and this year is no different. While the Badgers record may not be great and they have fallen victim to a letdown game from time to time, this team will not hit its peak until about conference tourney time and you can be sure this team will make some noise in Indianapolis. Wisconsin is capable of earning a 3 or 4 seed in the Big Dance. Potential landmine: 3/6 @ Illinois. The Illini already took it to the Badgers on their home turf. Things will not get any easier in Champaign.
13. Temple - Homerism rears its ugly head again. Temple is a major darkhorse headed into March. The Owls boast one of the best defensive teams in the country, solid senior leadership, and great discipline offensively. Provided they can hit the mid-range and outside jumper, this team will be extremely tough to beat in the March. Potential landmine: 2/13 at home against URI. Rhode Island will be gunning for the Owls in this game that has major A-10 implications. If Temple can overcome this test, only a home date against Dayton stands between them and a possible 4 seed come March.
14. Cornell - Call me crazy but a team whose 3 losses include close games against 2 top-3 teams ('Cuse and Kansas) on the road, needs to be recognized. Their 3rd loss was to a Seton Hall team that can suddenly become an offensive jaugernaut when certain players are clicking. Look for the Bears to run the table in the Ivy League. Potential landmine: 2/19 @ Harvard. The Crimson will be looking for revenge after the spanking Cornell put on them earlier this month.
15. Texas - The Longhorns were #1 at one point this season for a reason.... they are extremely talented. However, much of that talent is extremely young. If Rick Barnes can get this team to run on instinct and play to their full potential, I certainly wouldn't want to see them come March. Potential landmine: 2/17 @ Mizzou. Missouri is a solid team, talented enough to win a couple games come Tourney time. If Texas' youth shows through in this game, it could be a long ride back to Austin.
16. Gonzaga - The quintessential cinderella is a cinderella no more. In what was supposed to be a down year for the Zags, they are again putting together a solid tournament resume. Matt Bouldin is the Mr. Fundamental of college basketball, and the rest of this team follows his lead. A terrible loss to San Francisco is the difference between #16 and #10 for this team, in my opinion. Potential landmine: As I write this, the Zags are beating up on St. Mary's, the only other WCC school with a legitimate shot at the field of 65. Beyond this game, it should be smooth sailing for the Zags until conference tourney time.
17. BYU - Jimmer Fredette is a MONSTER. The kid can score from anywhere on the floor and carry this team on his back without blinking an eye. Aside from an unsightly loss to UNLV, BYU has put together one of the more solid seasons for anyteam this year. Look for this disciplined team to make a run in March. Potential landmine: 2/27 at home against New Mexico, a team that took it to the Cougars in January.
18. New Mexico - The Lobos have been on a tear in 2010. They beat BYU at home this month and have taken care of business against the teams they are supposed to save a loss to up-and-coming UNLV. Potential landmine: 2/27 @ BYU. This game will almost definitely decide the #1 seed in the WAC Tournament.
19. Butler - A perennial cinderella squad, the Bulldogs are back this year. Butler really showed their mettle in a tough loss against Georgetown. History has proven you cannot bet against Butler come Tournament time. Gordon Hayward leads this team and scoring and rebounding. Potential landmine: 2/20 at home against Siena, another phillyphanhood favorite. This BracketBusters matchup will shake out much of the mid-major talk.
20. Siena - Plymouth-Whitemarsh product Ronald Moore has this team clicking on all cylinders as their tops-in-the-nation win streak plows forward. Potential landmine: aforementioned game against Butler on 2/20. Needless to say, I am excited for this matchup.
21. Vanderbilt - The Commodores have been a player these last few years. This years' team is no different as they are poised to be the second best team to come out of the SEC. A.J. Ogilvy is a solid player who has had the international experience to be an automatic leader for this team. Potential landmine: 2/20 at home against Kentucky. A win in this game would solidify the Commodores as a team to be reckoned with going forward in March.
22. Maryland - This is a sort of preemptive ranking. With a win against Duke this Saturday, Maryland can triumphantly announce their return to the top of the college basketball world. Greivis Vasquez is a phillyphanhood phavorite. Potential landmine: Maryland hasn't proven much, but is ranked here based on potential. With a win against Duke on Saturday, they can prove they belong.
23. Wake Forest - The question surrounding this team is the strength of the ACC. I like this team but have I been fooled by a weak ACC? The next few weeks will tell that story. Ishmael Smith is one of the best PGs in the country, if not the fastest, and Al-Farouq Aminu is a surefire lottery pick. Potential landmine: a win Saturday against Georgia Tech would go along way to prove this team has major potential.
24. Pittsburgh - I'm giving a lot of credit to the Big East here given the Panthers recent struggles. Ashton Gibbs has exploded on the national scene this season, and he has his team poised to make a run come March, provided they can survive the next few weeks of conference play. Potential landmine: While WVU comes to town with fans hungry for revenge after the Mountaineers fans raucous welcome last week, the toughest game facing the Panthers will be against Marquette on 2/18. Marquette has lost some extremely tough games this year and is a few breaks from being on this list. The Panthers matchup @ Marquette will most definitely have major Big East Tournament implications.
25. Northern Iowa - UNI seems to be the stylish mid-major pick this year, but I can't get past one thing... a loss to DePaul. DePaul is terrible, thus, this is a terrible, terrible loss. Big wins against Boston College and Siena may prove that the DePaul game was an irregularity, but I'm not convinced. The jury is out on this team in the 'phanhood, and I'm waiting for the conference tournament to decide just how far I'll send them in my bracket. Potential landmine: 2/19 at home against Old Dominion. This is a BracketBusters matchup. By definition it is supposed to be a close game. We shall see.
That's it. Those are the teams that I believe to be the top 25 teams in the country. Obviously, things will change, and I will be on top of it. Thanks for tuning in.
Listed below are what I believe to be the 25 best teams in the country. My criteria is simply who I believe will make the Sweet 16 + the 9 best teams to lose in the second round. Obviously, between now and March lots can change, but if the tournament were to start today, this is who I expect to make some noise.
1. Kansas - This is an obvious pick. Loaded with talent and proven to be able to handle the pressures of a tight game, this team has to be under consideration for the title game come bracket time. Potential landmine: 3/3 at home against Kansas State. The Wildcats will be looking for revenge after having their first matchup within their grasp in Manhattan.
2. Villanova - A little homerism here? Possibly, but the 'Cats are built for a late March run. Great guard play, a defensive nightmare when they are given the opportunity to swarm, I do not believe we have seen the best Villanova has to offer as of yet. Potential landmine: while a game at Syracuse looms, the 'Cats 2/21 date at Pitt is an extremely tough matchup. Pitt is always a tough place to win.
3. Syracuse - This team is DEEP. 7 players get 20+ minutes and each can take over a game. Having said that, 'Cuse hasn't faced many close calls against good teams. A 1 point win @ WVU is a shining moment, however a 2 point win against Depaul never should have been that close. Potential landmine: 2/18 at G'Town. Sure, a game against Nova is coming up on 2/27, but the Orange first need to get past G'Town on the road. Nova couldn't survive that test, can the Orange?
4. Kentucky - Possibly the most talented team in the nation, the 'Cats lack an unquestioned leader to turn to in trying times. This seems to be a signature of Calipari coached teams, unquestioned talent, questionable leadership. I can tell you one thing, a team with questionable leadership has never hoisted the trophy. Potential landmine: 2/27 @ Tennessee. Kentucky hosts Tennessee this weekend, but playing at Tennessee is obviously a different story as the Vols game against Kansas proved.
5. Purdue - The Big Ten doesn't get much props these days, which is typical for February, however a Big Ten team always seems to make it to the Final Four. This years' threat is Purdue, solid at ever position and extremely physical, no team wants to see the Boilermakers up next on the schedule. Potential landmine: 2/17 @ Ohio State. With Evan Turner healthy, the Buckeyes are a real threat to Purdue.
6. Georgetown - The Hoyas are riding high after knocking off Nova at home last Saturday. A team that is disciplined at both ends of the floor, I cannot imagine them getting rattled come March. Huge concern: depth. The Hoyas rarely play more than 7 or 8 guys a night. Will this come back to haunt them?
7. Kansas State - The Wildcats are fiesty. This team shows as much energy as their coach, Frank Martin, possibly the most animated coach in the country. A tough loss at home against Kansas is really the only thing standing between this team and the top 5. Potential landmine: @ Kansas on 3/3. KSU has a pretty easy remaining schedule aside from this matchup, and with a win, could be looking at a 2 seed.
8. Michigan State - Very few teams can match MSU's physicality and precision. With a healthy Kalin Lucas, I would be hard pressed to bet against the Spartans. Look for this team, as they traditionally do, to come around in the last week of February. Potential landmine: @ Purdue. The Boilermakers already knocked off the Spartans once, but with Kalin Lucas healthy, the Spartans need to win this game to prove themselves to be among the nations elite.
9. West Virginia - Bob Huggins' squad is solid. A loss to Notre Dame is a really ugly blemish on the Mountaineers' record. The question come March is whether this team will fold like so many other of Huggins' teams (see: Cincinnati). Potential landmine: 2/12 @ Pitt. Pitt fans will not be gracious hosts thanks to the well documented trangressions of the Morgantown crowd in these teams' first matchup a week ago. This will be a tough out for WVU.
10. Duke - My dislike of Duke is well documented so, admittedly, this could be a shortsighted ranking, but Duke is what they always are, a fundamentally sound team with great basketball players, but probably not great athletes. I just can't see this team becoming a huge factor come March, but given that they are one of the top teams in a great conference, they deserve their ranking. Potential landmine: 2/28 @ UVA. The Cavaliers will be looking to cement their status as a team to be reckoned with after years of futility. You can bet the Dukies will get their best shot in Charlottesville.
11. Ohio State - Evan Turner is possibly the most underrated player in the country right now. With 2 triple-doubles this season, he is one of the most well-rounded players in the country. If he can remain healthy, OSU will be a tough out come March. Potential landmine: 2/14 @ Illinois. The Illini have been playing solid ball of late and I can guarantee there won't be much love coming the Buckeyes way from the Illini faithful on Valentine's Day.
12. Wisconsin - Bo Ryan always has his team prepped for a late run in March. Wisconsin is traditionally one of the more well-disciplined teams in the country, and this year is no different. While the Badgers record may not be great and they have fallen victim to a letdown game from time to time, this team will not hit its peak until about conference tourney time and you can be sure this team will make some noise in Indianapolis. Wisconsin is capable of earning a 3 or 4 seed in the Big Dance. Potential landmine: 3/6 @ Illinois. The Illini already took it to the Badgers on their home turf. Things will not get any easier in Champaign.
13. Temple - Homerism rears its ugly head again. Temple is a major darkhorse headed into March. The Owls boast one of the best defensive teams in the country, solid senior leadership, and great discipline offensively. Provided they can hit the mid-range and outside jumper, this team will be extremely tough to beat in the March. Potential landmine: 2/13 at home against URI. Rhode Island will be gunning for the Owls in this game that has major A-10 implications. If Temple can overcome this test, only a home date against Dayton stands between them and a possible 4 seed come March.
14. Cornell - Call me crazy but a team whose 3 losses include close games against 2 top-3 teams ('Cuse and Kansas) on the road, needs to be recognized. Their 3rd loss was to a Seton Hall team that can suddenly become an offensive jaugernaut when certain players are clicking. Look for the Bears to run the table in the Ivy League. Potential landmine: 2/19 @ Harvard. The Crimson will be looking for revenge after the spanking Cornell put on them earlier this month.
15. Texas - The Longhorns were #1 at one point this season for a reason.... they are extremely talented. However, much of that talent is extremely young. If Rick Barnes can get this team to run on instinct and play to their full potential, I certainly wouldn't want to see them come March. Potential landmine: 2/17 @ Mizzou. Missouri is a solid team, talented enough to win a couple games come Tourney time. If Texas' youth shows through in this game, it could be a long ride back to Austin.
16. Gonzaga - The quintessential cinderella is a cinderella no more. In what was supposed to be a down year for the Zags, they are again putting together a solid tournament resume. Matt Bouldin is the Mr. Fundamental of college basketball, and the rest of this team follows his lead. A terrible loss to San Francisco is the difference between #16 and #10 for this team, in my opinion. Potential landmine: As I write this, the Zags are beating up on St. Mary's, the only other WCC school with a legitimate shot at the field of 65. Beyond this game, it should be smooth sailing for the Zags until conference tourney time.
17. BYU - Jimmer Fredette is a MONSTER. The kid can score from anywhere on the floor and carry this team on his back without blinking an eye. Aside from an unsightly loss to UNLV, BYU has put together one of the more solid seasons for anyteam this year. Look for this disciplined team to make a run in March. Potential landmine: 2/27 at home against New Mexico, a team that took it to the Cougars in January.
18. New Mexico - The Lobos have been on a tear in 2010. They beat BYU at home this month and have taken care of business against the teams they are supposed to save a loss to up-and-coming UNLV. Potential landmine: 2/27 @ BYU. This game will almost definitely decide the #1 seed in the WAC Tournament.
19. Butler - A perennial cinderella squad, the Bulldogs are back this year. Butler really showed their mettle in a tough loss against Georgetown. History has proven you cannot bet against Butler come Tournament time. Gordon Hayward leads this team and scoring and rebounding. Potential landmine: 2/20 at home against Siena, another phillyphanhood favorite. This BracketBusters matchup will shake out much of the mid-major talk.
20. Siena - Plymouth-Whitemarsh product Ronald Moore has this team clicking on all cylinders as their tops-in-the-nation win streak plows forward. Potential landmine: aforementioned game against Butler on 2/20. Needless to say, I am excited for this matchup.
21. Vanderbilt - The Commodores have been a player these last few years. This years' team is no different as they are poised to be the second best team to come out of the SEC. A.J. Ogilvy is a solid player who has had the international experience to be an automatic leader for this team. Potential landmine: 2/20 at home against Kentucky. A win in this game would solidify the Commodores as a team to be reckoned with going forward in March.
22. Maryland - This is a sort of preemptive ranking. With a win against Duke this Saturday, Maryland can triumphantly announce their return to the top of the college basketball world. Greivis Vasquez is a phillyphanhood phavorite. Potential landmine: Maryland hasn't proven much, but is ranked here based on potential. With a win against Duke on Saturday, they can prove they belong.
23. Wake Forest - The question surrounding this team is the strength of the ACC. I like this team but have I been fooled by a weak ACC? The next few weeks will tell that story. Ishmael Smith is one of the best PGs in the country, if not the fastest, and Al-Farouq Aminu is a surefire lottery pick. Potential landmine: a win Saturday against Georgia Tech would go along way to prove this team has major potential.
24. Pittsburgh - I'm giving a lot of credit to the Big East here given the Panthers recent struggles. Ashton Gibbs has exploded on the national scene this season, and he has his team poised to make a run come March, provided they can survive the next few weeks of conference play. Potential landmine: While WVU comes to town with fans hungry for revenge after the Mountaineers fans raucous welcome last week, the toughest game facing the Panthers will be against Marquette on 2/18. Marquette has lost some extremely tough games this year and is a few breaks from being on this list. The Panthers matchup @ Marquette will most definitely have major Big East Tournament implications.
25. Northern Iowa - UNI seems to be the stylish mid-major pick this year, but I can't get past one thing... a loss to DePaul. DePaul is terrible, thus, this is a terrible, terrible loss. Big wins against Boston College and Siena may prove that the DePaul game was an irregularity, but I'm not convinced. The jury is out on this team in the 'phanhood, and I'm waiting for the conference tournament to decide just how far I'll send them in my bracket. Potential landmine: 2/19 at home against Old Dominion. This is a BracketBusters matchup. By definition it is supposed to be a close game. We shall see.
That's it. Those are the teams that I believe to be the top 25 teams in the country. Obviously, things will change, and I will be on top of it. Thanks for tuning in.
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
Random Observations
Good afternoon from Saskatchewan, er, rather Philadelphia. With yet another huge snowstorm looming over the region and the day off from work that will come with it tomorrow, I am preparing a huge post for tomorrow. However, to whet your appetites, I wanted to post a few observations lacking any real analytical value from the week that was.
- Super Bowl - I didn't think the ads were spectacular this year, and neither was the game. While everyone is gushing over New Orleans and how the city deserved this (what about that whack job who made the sign that said something to the effect of "Now it's like Katrina didn't happen"?? There is a line you just don't cross... sports can alleviate a lot of frustrations and mend old wounds, but that city will NEVER be the same and the Saints winning the Super Bowl certainly didn't reverse time and hold those levees in place), I can't help but hate the Saints. In my opinion, the Saints are right up there with the '06 Steelers as the worst Super Bowl championship team in years. If they play that game 10 times, I'm willing to bet the Colts win 8.
- Villanova - While many were upset over Nova's loss to #8 G'Town, I think it was a good loss. G'Town was unconscious from the floor, going 56% for the game, 53% from 3 point territory. They were also a staggering 39-50 from the charity stripe. 50 FREE THROWS!!! Read that again. 50!! Anytime you give a team 39 uncontested points, you know it's going to be a rough go. Georgetown's hot shooting was anything but contagious as Nova was a pedestrian 46% from the field and a paltry 32% from beyond the arc. Add in the miscellaneous factors, on the road in the middle of a historic snowstorm, the on again off again waffling by administrators as to whether or not to even play the game, the rough nature of the game (the refs had almost no control over this one, the Big East has MAJOR officiating issues) and the 103-90 outcome was almost impressive. With their big win over #5 West Virginia last night, Nova showed they can shake off a loss, albeit a good one.
- Just a few days away from pitchers and catchers!! The Phils, if healthy, have a top 3 rotation this season. It's still waayyy to far away though, but thinking about baseball does help to combat these winter blues.
- On the local music scene, 93.3 announced their lineup for the annual MMRbeque and it will be headlined by Stone Temple Pilots and Alice in Chains. I'm definitely taking advantage of the chance to see Scott Weiland live, as time is always ticking when it comes to that guy.
- Penn State Basketball hasn't gotten much press here, but that is because they absolutely suck. Note to Buie, their top-50 recruit and Talor Battle's brother.... GET OUT NOW! Do not waste your college career there like your brother did/is. It is a basketball wasteland up there in State College and PSU is not firing DeChellis any time soon. I mean, the guy only works at the biggest school in a state that features 2 bona fide basketball hotbeds, Philly and Pittsburgh, as well as some of the best small town basketball traditions in the nation (i.e. Williamsport High, Erie Cathedral Prep, Reading High, Lancaster McCaskey). He did win the NIT, though..... LMAO.... Penn State Basketball is an absolute joke. ZERO NCAA tournament appearances in six years with Big Ed at the helm, that's six years too long of a head coaching career for that guy at PSU.
And with that rant, I'm going to call it a night. At some point tomorrow I hope to post another in-depth look at the college basketball landscape, and with the added free time I'll have tomorrow, I might even cite statistics... exciting, I know.
- Super Bowl - I didn't think the ads were spectacular this year, and neither was the game. While everyone is gushing over New Orleans and how the city deserved this (what about that whack job who made the sign that said something to the effect of "Now it's like Katrina didn't happen"?? There is a line you just don't cross... sports can alleviate a lot of frustrations and mend old wounds, but that city will NEVER be the same and the Saints winning the Super Bowl certainly didn't reverse time and hold those levees in place), I can't help but hate the Saints. In my opinion, the Saints are right up there with the '06 Steelers as the worst Super Bowl championship team in years. If they play that game 10 times, I'm willing to bet the Colts win 8.
- Villanova - While many were upset over Nova's loss to #8 G'Town, I think it was a good loss. G'Town was unconscious from the floor, going 56% for the game, 53% from 3 point territory. They were also a staggering 39-50 from the charity stripe. 50 FREE THROWS!!! Read that again. 50!! Anytime you give a team 39 uncontested points, you know it's going to be a rough go. Georgetown's hot shooting was anything but contagious as Nova was a pedestrian 46% from the field and a paltry 32% from beyond the arc. Add in the miscellaneous factors, on the road in the middle of a historic snowstorm, the on again off again waffling by administrators as to whether or not to even play the game, the rough nature of the game (the refs had almost no control over this one, the Big East has MAJOR officiating issues) and the 103-90 outcome was almost impressive. With their big win over #5 West Virginia last night, Nova showed they can shake off a loss, albeit a good one.
- Just a few days away from pitchers and catchers!! The Phils, if healthy, have a top 3 rotation this season. It's still waayyy to far away though, but thinking about baseball does help to combat these winter blues.
- On the local music scene, 93.3 announced their lineup for the annual MMRbeque and it will be headlined by Stone Temple Pilots and Alice in Chains. I'm definitely taking advantage of the chance to see Scott Weiland live, as time is always ticking when it comes to that guy.
- Penn State Basketball hasn't gotten much press here, but that is because they absolutely suck. Note to Buie, their top-50 recruit and Talor Battle's brother.... GET OUT NOW! Do not waste your college career there like your brother did/is. It is a basketball wasteland up there in State College and PSU is not firing DeChellis any time soon. I mean, the guy only works at the biggest school in a state that features 2 bona fide basketball hotbeds, Philly and Pittsburgh, as well as some of the best small town basketball traditions in the nation (i.e. Williamsport High, Erie Cathedral Prep, Reading High, Lancaster McCaskey). He did win the NIT, though..... LMAO.... Penn State Basketball is an absolute joke. ZERO NCAA tournament appearances in six years with Big Ed at the helm, that's six years too long of a head coaching career for that guy at PSU.
And with that rant, I'm going to call it a night. At some point tomorrow I hope to post another in-depth look at the college basketball landscape, and with the added free time I'll have tomorrow, I might even cite statistics... exciting, I know.
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
College Basketball (cont.)
Yesterday, I commented rather extensively on the Big 5. If you can't tell, I absolutely love the Big 5. However, there are over 300 other teams in the country and if you want to seem in the least bit knowledgeable on college basketball, it helps to get familiar with some of these. I'll do my best to help. Listed below are teams that I feel you should keep an eye on, for one reason or another.
Kentucky - UK has been getting a whole lotta love these days. While their stay at No. 1 was short lived, they are a team with breathtaking talent. Having said that, I am not picking these guys to win it all in March, no matter what transpires between now and then. Why, you may ask? The reasons are numerable but for the sake of time, I will keep it short. First, this team is loaded with freshman. In their loss against South Carolina, you could sense these young guns panic. Taking bad shots, turning the ball over, missed free throws, all signs of youth and, in my opinion, all signs of a John Calipari coached team when the going gets tough. Trust me... do NOT pick Kentucky to win the National Championship. It's only February 2nd and I am that confident. John Wall is nasty though.
Kansas - KU is a team to fear for the exact opposite reasons I cited in my breakdown of Kentucky. With a solid core of senior leadership in Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich, this team has been nearly unflappable this season. In their incredible win at Kansas St. this past weekend, the traits of a team with great leadership shone through. They battled hard down the stretch and pulled out a win in an environment that was way more intense than the one in which Kentucky floundered. Philly's own Morris twins are another reason this team is so good. Their size and athleticism is tough to find elsewhere in the college game this year. With one season and postseason already under their belts, these guys should know what it takes to help push their team to the top, and if they don't, Collins and Aldrich are sure to remind them
North Carolina - I know there are a lot of UNC haters out there, and this team is not on this list for what they might accomplish this year, but instead for what they possibly won't accomplish, make the NCAA Tournament. When was the last time a defending national champion didn't make the Tournament the following year? (A little research shows that it was not that long ago, 2008, when both teams from 07's championship game, Florida and Ohio State, failed to reach the Tournament). This is a perfect example of how these schools that load up on McDonald's All-Americans and one-and-done guys are ripe for collapse. Do not get it twisted, however, UNC will be back. Soon.
Duke - Duke is on here just because it brings me great joy to watch them fall apart in the Tournament year after year after year after year. Rest assured, I will be smiling when Jon Scheyer and Kyle Singler walk off the court crying after their second round loss.
Siena - Who??? Yes, Siena. This team knocked off a solid Ohio State team last year in the tournament, brought back almost everyone from that team, and they find themselves holding the longest current winning streak in all of Division 1. Senior-laden with great guard play, this has been the recipe for success come Tournament time for decades. This year will be no different. Look out for Philly product Ronnie Moore and Co. Their Bracket Busters game against Butler, another team to watch, is a must-see for any basketball fan and will serve as a great barometer for both teams heading into conference tournaments. Should Siena win that game, I think they will have locked up an at-large bid, provided they avoid any terrible losses in the rest of the regular season and get upset in the MAAC tournament (speaking of the MAAC, La Salle used to be in the MAAC, I did not know this. You have to wonder what could have been for them had they stayed).
Cornell - At some point, this team has to be respected for what they are, a good basketball team, and not for being a novelty, a good basketball team from the Ivy League. Cornell nearly pulled a monumental upset at Kansas and absolutely demolished another Ivy team, Harvard, that many, including Sports Illustrated, were very high on. Unfortunately, due to the Ivy League's terrible TV licensing deals, I have yet to see this team play live. From what I can gather from highlights and articles, they sound like a fundamentally sound basketball team with surprising athleticism. This is the type of team that can easily pull an upset or 2 in the first weekend of the tournament. A bunch of nerdy white dudes with zero flash is not intimidating in the least bit, and they give their opponents a false sense of security before absolutely blowing their minds with backdoor cuts, good box outs, and perfect defensive rotations. Much like the Penn teams of the 90's, this team is a good team, regardless of conference.
Other Teams To Watch:
Gonzaga
Michigan State
Baylor
Seton Hall
West Virginia
South Carolina
Northern Iowa
Stay tuned as the season progresses as, for the most part, I will be turning a significant portion of my attention to college basketball.
Kentucky - UK has been getting a whole lotta love these days. While their stay at No. 1 was short lived, they are a team with breathtaking talent. Having said that, I am not picking these guys to win it all in March, no matter what transpires between now and then. Why, you may ask? The reasons are numerable but for the sake of time, I will keep it short. First, this team is loaded with freshman. In their loss against South Carolina, you could sense these young guns panic. Taking bad shots, turning the ball over, missed free throws, all signs of youth and, in my opinion, all signs of a John Calipari coached team when the going gets tough. Trust me... do NOT pick Kentucky to win the National Championship. It's only February 2nd and I am that confident. John Wall is nasty though.
Kansas - KU is a team to fear for the exact opposite reasons I cited in my breakdown of Kentucky. With a solid core of senior leadership in Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich, this team has been nearly unflappable this season. In their incredible win at Kansas St. this past weekend, the traits of a team with great leadership shone through. They battled hard down the stretch and pulled out a win in an environment that was way more intense than the one in which Kentucky floundered. Philly's own Morris twins are another reason this team is so good. Their size and athleticism is tough to find elsewhere in the college game this year. With one season and postseason already under their belts, these guys should know what it takes to help push their team to the top, and if they don't, Collins and Aldrich are sure to remind them
North Carolina - I know there are a lot of UNC haters out there, and this team is not on this list for what they might accomplish this year, but instead for what they possibly won't accomplish, make the NCAA Tournament. When was the last time a defending national champion didn't make the Tournament the following year? (A little research shows that it was not that long ago, 2008, when both teams from 07's championship game, Florida and Ohio State, failed to reach the Tournament). This is a perfect example of how these schools that load up on McDonald's All-Americans and one-and-done guys are ripe for collapse. Do not get it twisted, however, UNC will be back. Soon.
Duke - Duke is on here just because it brings me great joy to watch them fall apart in the Tournament year after year after year after year. Rest assured, I will be smiling when Jon Scheyer and Kyle Singler walk off the court crying after their second round loss.
Siena - Who??? Yes, Siena. This team knocked off a solid Ohio State team last year in the tournament, brought back almost everyone from that team, and they find themselves holding the longest current winning streak in all of Division 1. Senior-laden with great guard play, this has been the recipe for success come Tournament time for decades. This year will be no different. Look out for Philly product Ronnie Moore and Co. Their Bracket Busters game against Butler, another team to watch, is a must-see for any basketball fan and will serve as a great barometer for both teams heading into conference tournaments. Should Siena win that game, I think they will have locked up an at-large bid, provided they avoid any terrible losses in the rest of the regular season and get upset in the MAAC tournament (speaking of the MAAC, La Salle used to be in the MAAC, I did not know this. You have to wonder what could have been for them had they stayed).
Cornell - At some point, this team has to be respected for what they are, a good basketball team, and not for being a novelty, a good basketball team from the Ivy League. Cornell nearly pulled a monumental upset at Kansas and absolutely demolished another Ivy team, Harvard, that many, including Sports Illustrated, were very high on. Unfortunately, due to the Ivy League's terrible TV licensing deals, I have yet to see this team play live. From what I can gather from highlights and articles, they sound like a fundamentally sound basketball team with surprising athleticism. This is the type of team that can easily pull an upset or 2 in the first weekend of the tournament. A bunch of nerdy white dudes with zero flash is not intimidating in the least bit, and they give their opponents a false sense of security before absolutely blowing their minds with backdoor cuts, good box outs, and perfect defensive rotations. Much like the Penn teams of the 90's, this team is a good team, regardless of conference.
Other Teams To Watch:
Gonzaga
Michigan State
Baylor
Seton Hall
West Virginia
South Carolina
Northern Iowa
Stay tuned as the season progresses as, for the most part, I will be turning a significant portion of my attention to college basketball.
Monday, February 1, 2010
Big 5 Update Minus Penn
Things are heating up on the college basketball scene. As the calendar turns to February, the games carry more and more meaning and teams can solidify their place in the Dance, or fall off the radar completely. Here are some random thoughts of one college basketball observer...
The Big 5
Took in my second Big 5 game of the year on Saturday, and I have now seen every team but Penn, and by all accounts, I'm not missing much there. Temple beat LaSalle in a game that, considering how Temple was shooting the ball, could've gone either way if it weren't for their stellar defense.
La Salle is a good team, a team that is a few injuries away from being in the discussion for an at large bid in my opinion. They have solid guard play and inside, it was obvious that Aaric Murray, a Glen Mills product, has a ton of potential. Dr. John Giannini has that program headed in the right direction.
Unfortunately, they ran into a brick wall named the Temple Owls on Saturday. Temple's approach to defense is downright nasty. The energy the team expends at that end of the floor would certainly make John Chaney happy. Offensively, the outside shot wasn't falling, but Temple was able to create opportunities for themselves in the mid-range game and under the basket. To me, this will be the biggest factor in how far Temple can go in the NCAA Tournament. Good teams never have to rely too heavily on one aspect of their game and can adapt when something is off on any given day. Against La Salle, Temple showed that resiliance, however, they were just a few days removed from being unable to overcome similar shortfalls against a good Charlotte squad. With a month left til the Madness, I am confident this team can figure out how to win any type of game.
The other Big 5 game I saw this year was a matchup in early December at the Palestra between Nova and St. Joe's, aka the Holy War. The game did not disappoint as a fiesty St. Joe's squad kept it close throughout and had their fans rockin' late in the game.
Unfortunately, aside from that performance, St. Joe's has had a tough year, save a home win against at-large hopeful Dayton. Martelli's team will always play hard, but they lack the talent needed to make any serious noise. The years where St. Joe's has made people in the college basketball world take notice, they always had a prolific scorer who, at any point, could shoulder the load and win a game for them. Marvin O'Connor, Jameer Nelson, Delonte West, and even Pat Calathes come to mind. No such player on this team. Garrett Williamson deserves some good press based on how hard he plays, but even he is too limited offensively to score points in bunches like those I just listed. Hopefully, Phil Martelli can get some local guys to come to St. Joe's and turn things around as the program has been in decline for a few years since the apex 2004 run.
As for Nova, this team is good. Insanely good. At this point, it is safe to say that anything less than a 2 seed would spell major disappointment. Extremely fast, able to score in any number of ways, I can see this team making a return trip to the Final Four. Their biggest weakness is their frontcourt, but as Mouphtaou Yarou plays his way back into shape after being sidelined with Hepatitis B, that area should improve. The beauty of it is that the style of basketball that Nova plays doesn't necessarily need dominant big men. Nova's guards are good enough to push the tempo, get to the basket, score, and cause foul troubles for slower big men, all in the same sentence. As long as Nova's guards can stretch the defense with their outside shooting and get out on the break regularly, this team is going to be tough to beat. On top of that, they have some "glue" guys who really make things happen when the going gets tough. Taylor King comes to mind here. In that game against St. Joe's, King's hustle and timely baskets were the difference down the stretch run. He performed similarly against Louisville this season when Nova was struggling mightily. If Villanova is to make a run similar to last year's, I am willing to bet that Taylor King plays a huge role in getting the Wildcats through a tough game. Scottie Reynolds, the two Corey's (Fisher and Stokes), and Maliik Wayns might get a lot of the press, but King is certainly no slouch.
Also, I've been reading a lot lately about Jay Wright's team and he has his guys in a great mindset. The talk has been, while they would be honored to be No. 1, it is not this team's goal. That would be to continue to improve as a team and get to that point where they are as good as they can possibly be, regardless of ranking. I love this philosophy as once the Tournament starts, rankings mean nothing. The team playing the best basketball will be the team that wins. For a little more insight on what I'm talking about, I would suggest watching "Attitude of a Champion", a documentary on the 2009 Wildcats that reached the Final Four. In it, insight is provided as to how Jay Wright gets his team to be critical of themselves after wins and losses in order to see where improvement can be made. This relentless pursuit of a mindset, a mentality, a feel for the game is what will push this year's team even higher. With a murderous schedule ahead, we will know much more about Villanova in about 2 weeks. One can only hope that they do not peak too soon, which has to be a major concern for this coaching staff.
The Big 5
Took in my second Big 5 game of the year on Saturday, and I have now seen every team but Penn, and by all accounts, I'm not missing much there. Temple beat LaSalle in a game that, considering how Temple was shooting the ball, could've gone either way if it weren't for their stellar defense.
La Salle is a good team, a team that is a few injuries away from being in the discussion for an at large bid in my opinion. They have solid guard play and inside, it was obvious that Aaric Murray, a Glen Mills product, has a ton of potential. Dr. John Giannini has that program headed in the right direction.
Unfortunately, they ran into a brick wall named the Temple Owls on Saturday. Temple's approach to defense is downright nasty. The energy the team expends at that end of the floor would certainly make John Chaney happy. Offensively, the outside shot wasn't falling, but Temple was able to create opportunities for themselves in the mid-range game and under the basket. To me, this will be the biggest factor in how far Temple can go in the NCAA Tournament. Good teams never have to rely too heavily on one aspect of their game and can adapt when something is off on any given day. Against La Salle, Temple showed that resiliance, however, they were just a few days removed from being unable to overcome similar shortfalls against a good Charlotte squad. With a month left til the Madness, I am confident this team can figure out how to win any type of game.
The other Big 5 game I saw this year was a matchup in early December at the Palestra between Nova and St. Joe's, aka the Holy War. The game did not disappoint as a fiesty St. Joe's squad kept it close throughout and had their fans rockin' late in the game.
Unfortunately, aside from that performance, St. Joe's has had a tough year, save a home win against at-large hopeful Dayton. Martelli's team will always play hard, but they lack the talent needed to make any serious noise. The years where St. Joe's has made people in the college basketball world take notice, they always had a prolific scorer who, at any point, could shoulder the load and win a game for them. Marvin O'Connor, Jameer Nelson, Delonte West, and even Pat Calathes come to mind. No such player on this team. Garrett Williamson deserves some good press based on how hard he plays, but even he is too limited offensively to score points in bunches like those I just listed. Hopefully, Phil Martelli can get some local guys to come to St. Joe's and turn things around as the program has been in decline for a few years since the apex 2004 run.
As for Nova, this team is good. Insanely good. At this point, it is safe to say that anything less than a 2 seed would spell major disappointment. Extremely fast, able to score in any number of ways, I can see this team making a return trip to the Final Four. Their biggest weakness is their frontcourt, but as Mouphtaou Yarou plays his way back into shape after being sidelined with Hepatitis B, that area should improve. The beauty of it is that the style of basketball that Nova plays doesn't necessarily need dominant big men. Nova's guards are good enough to push the tempo, get to the basket, score, and cause foul troubles for slower big men, all in the same sentence. As long as Nova's guards can stretch the defense with their outside shooting and get out on the break regularly, this team is going to be tough to beat. On top of that, they have some "glue" guys who really make things happen when the going gets tough. Taylor King comes to mind here. In that game against St. Joe's, King's hustle and timely baskets were the difference down the stretch run. He performed similarly against Louisville this season when Nova was struggling mightily. If Villanova is to make a run similar to last year's, I am willing to bet that Taylor King plays a huge role in getting the Wildcats through a tough game. Scottie Reynolds, the two Corey's (Fisher and Stokes), and Maliik Wayns might get a lot of the press, but King is certainly no slouch.
Also, I've been reading a lot lately about Jay Wright's team and he has his guys in a great mindset. The talk has been, while they would be honored to be No. 1, it is not this team's goal. That would be to continue to improve as a team and get to that point where they are as good as they can possibly be, regardless of ranking. I love this philosophy as once the Tournament starts, rankings mean nothing. The team playing the best basketball will be the team that wins. For a little more insight on what I'm talking about, I would suggest watching "Attitude of a Champion", a documentary on the 2009 Wildcats that reached the Final Four. In it, insight is provided as to how Jay Wright gets his team to be critical of themselves after wins and losses in order to see where improvement can be made. This relentless pursuit of a mindset, a mentality, a feel for the game is what will push this year's team even higher. With a murderous schedule ahead, we will know much more about Villanova in about 2 weeks. One can only hope that they do not peak too soon, which has to be a major concern for this coaching staff.
Friday, January 22, 2010
The NCAA MUST Be Joking
It's time to put the Eagles to rest and start talking college basketball. I would talk about the Sixers, but there is absolutely nothing to talk about. They suck.
As of late, the NCAA has been discussing expanding the NCAA tournament to allow more teams. The expansion plan that seems to be gaining the most ground is the idea to expand to 96 teams, giving the top 32 seeds a bye into round 2. I wholeheartedly disagree with this plan. First, expanding the tournament is never going to quell controversy. Whether its team 66 or 97, some team is always going to be making the arguement that they were better than team 65 or 96. That will not change. Second, granting 32 favorites a free pass to round 2 lessens the chances of a huge Cinderella upset, thus killing the spirit of what makes the NCAA tournament my favorite sporting event of the year. Under this plan, Upstart Directional School A will now have to win a game before even getting a chance to take down the big boys. So much info can be gleaned from that one game against superior competition that the large schools will be much more prepared for the little guy they historically have looked past to the delight of viewers everywhere. To top it off, most small schools will have to pull an upset to even get a chance at upsetting a top 8 seed. That KILLS what makes week 1 of the tournament exciting, the 5-12 matchup, the 3-14 game that goes down to the wire. At best, there would be 1 or 2 of such matchups anually.
What upsets me most about this plan is the obvious hypocrisy of the NCAA. Allow me to explain. They are proposing to make the NCAA tournament a month-long affair, using "fairness" to all as a smokescreen to hide the real incentive, money. Umm, excuse me. Is this the same NCAA that calls the BCS "fair" and cites prolonged distraction from academics as a big factor in their reasoning for not instituting a college football playoff?? The NCAA is full of BS. If they are to expland the NCAA tournament to 96 teams, television revenue from the the expanded coverage would be worth hundreds of millions if not billions of dollars. THAT is the real incentive. If they gave two bits about fairness, Boise State and TCU would have had a shot a proving the BCS to be a flawed system, instead of being placed in a game against each other and a lose-lose position. Win and you're only better than the other non-BCS team, lose and "see, I told you they weren't that good".
As for the NCAA tournament, if the NCAA was anything other than a bunch of money-grubbing scumbags, they would seriously consider a much more feasible, much more fair expansion plan. Expand the field to 68 teams with 8 teams playing in play-in games to face the #1 seeds. This is a win-win for everyone. First, the 16 and 16a seeds will get a shot at winning a game in March instead of just being offered up as sacrificial lambs to the beasts of college basketball. Also, 3 more at-large bids will be available. This is significant because, let's be honest, there are only ever really 3 or 4 teams with a legitimate gripe for being left out of the tournament. Lessening that number by 3 would be huge because, in my opinion, 1 good team being left out of the tournament is a whole lot more fair to viewers than letting 32 mediocre teams in, diluting the product that has thrilled us for decades.
All in all, I actually find it pretty hilarious that the NCAA is spending so much energy on fixing the wrong championship format. The same people who don't want a tournament in one sport want an even larger, all-encompassing one in another. If the NCAA were a person, they would definitely have been on "I Love Money" by now.
As of late, the NCAA has been discussing expanding the NCAA tournament to allow more teams. The expansion plan that seems to be gaining the most ground is the idea to expand to 96 teams, giving the top 32 seeds a bye into round 2. I wholeheartedly disagree with this plan. First, expanding the tournament is never going to quell controversy. Whether its team 66 or 97, some team is always going to be making the arguement that they were better than team 65 or 96. That will not change. Second, granting 32 favorites a free pass to round 2 lessens the chances of a huge Cinderella upset, thus killing the spirit of what makes the NCAA tournament my favorite sporting event of the year. Under this plan, Upstart Directional School A will now have to win a game before even getting a chance to take down the big boys. So much info can be gleaned from that one game against superior competition that the large schools will be much more prepared for the little guy they historically have looked past to the delight of viewers everywhere. To top it off, most small schools will have to pull an upset to even get a chance at upsetting a top 8 seed. That KILLS what makes week 1 of the tournament exciting, the 5-12 matchup, the 3-14 game that goes down to the wire. At best, there would be 1 or 2 of such matchups anually.
What upsets me most about this plan is the obvious hypocrisy of the NCAA. Allow me to explain. They are proposing to make the NCAA tournament a month-long affair, using "fairness" to all as a smokescreen to hide the real incentive, money. Umm, excuse me. Is this the same NCAA that calls the BCS "fair" and cites prolonged distraction from academics as a big factor in their reasoning for not instituting a college football playoff?? The NCAA is full of BS. If they are to expland the NCAA tournament to 96 teams, television revenue from the the expanded coverage would be worth hundreds of millions if not billions of dollars. THAT is the real incentive. If they gave two bits about fairness, Boise State and TCU would have had a shot a proving the BCS to be a flawed system, instead of being placed in a game against each other and a lose-lose position. Win and you're only better than the other non-BCS team, lose and "see, I told you they weren't that good".
As for the NCAA tournament, if the NCAA was anything other than a bunch of money-grubbing scumbags, they would seriously consider a much more feasible, much more fair expansion plan. Expand the field to 68 teams with 8 teams playing in play-in games to face the #1 seeds. This is a win-win for everyone. First, the 16 and 16a seeds will get a shot at winning a game in March instead of just being offered up as sacrificial lambs to the beasts of college basketball. Also, 3 more at-large bids will be available. This is significant because, let's be honest, there are only ever really 3 or 4 teams with a legitimate gripe for being left out of the tournament. Lessening that number by 3 would be huge because, in my opinion, 1 good team being left out of the tournament is a whole lot more fair to viewers than letting 32 mediocre teams in, diluting the product that has thrilled us for decades.
All in all, I actually find it pretty hilarious that the NCAA is spending so much energy on fixing the wrong championship format. The same people who don't want a tournament in one sport want an even larger, all-encompassing one in another. If the NCAA were a person, they would definitely have been on "I Love Money" by now.
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
An Articulate Argument for the Dismissal of Andy Reid
Last week, I made an allusion to the fact that in order to ever win the Super Bowl, the Eagles must fire Andy Reid. I have voiced that opinion in several social situations since and each time been I have been disagreed with. In fact, I have yet to speak with anyone who agrees with me. I find this to be fascinating.
Before I continue, allow me to set the record straight on some parameters for this discussion. First, I am fully aware that the Eagles likely will not get rid of both Andy Reid in the same offseason, and if we are only to get rid of one of them, obviously Donovan has to be the first on voted off the island. Second, I understand that Andy Reid is, by the numbers, a very successful coach who wins a lot of games. Finally, the definition of true success in the NFL is winning the Super Bowl.
In order to more clearly explain my opinion I will refute the most common arguments I’ve heard regarding this topic one by one
1. It’s Donovan McNabb’s fault, we need a new QB.
While I fully agree that Donovan McNabb has choked in some big games, I would like to point out that when Donovan plays poorly, it’s the same shortcoming that causes the meltdown every time, inaccuracy. Simply put, Donovan McNabb is not an accurate quarterback. He is athletic and strong-armed. This isn’t an opinion, it is fact drawn from a decade of live action data. Having said that, why does Andy Reid continue to put McNabb in situations that require accuracy to be successful? I am of the belief, and judging from his press conferences Andy Reid is as well, that it is the coach’s responsibility to put his players in the best possible position to win. This means capitalizing on the strengths of each player and doing all you can to avoid putting players in positions that could allow for weaknesses to be exploited. Being the QB, Donovan will touch the ball every play, so it would seem paramount to game plan around his strengths and weaknesses, yet the Eagles continue to employ an offense that emphasizes the biggest weakness in Donovan McNabb’s game! How can you place all of the blame on the guy when all he is doing is using the tools available to him, his skills, to carry out a game plan dictated to him by his coach, whose prime responsibility is to design a game plan that gives his players the best chance to succeed? McNabb’s situation isn’t the only example of Reid’s inability to put the right player in the right position. Remember the disaster that was Reno Mahe as a punt returner? That decision cost the Eagles at least one game directly that season. Blaine Bishop at safety back in 2002 is another example, as is starting Levon Kirkland about 7 years after his prime. In each case, and countless others, Reid ignored glaring weaknesses in each player and expected them to do something that their skill set would simply not allow them to do. In each case, the question needs to be asked, why couldn’t the Eagles adjust their game plan accordingly? It is easiest to ask this question in the case of McNabb as it has been an ongoing issue for about a decade now. In my best estimation, the Eagles may have already won a Super Bowl had Andy Reid changed his offensive philosophy to emphasize McNabb’s strengths, like his mobility and arm strength. Only one person carries the influence to cause a sea change in philosophy like this and that person is Andy Reid, and he hasn't done it yet.
2. Look at how well he has done with such little talent.
This one is easy. Andy Reid is in control of most player personnel decisions. I haven’t checked recently so his exact title may have changed, but Reid is most definitely the most influential voice in these decisions. Any perceived lack of talent is completely his fault. Remember when he insisted that the Eagles didn’t need an explosive, cream of the crop type talent at receiver?? Well, Mr. Reid did all of the work proving himself wrong on that one. This year, his decision to go with an Andrews Brothers youth movement likely cost the Eagles at least a deeper run into the playoffs if not more.
3. He is the best coach the Eagles have ever had.
And Beast Light is the best beer made by Milwaukee’s Best brand. Point is it’s easy to be the best Eagles coach ever when we’ve pretty much always had crappy coaches. By the numbers, yes, Andy Reid is the most successful coach in Eagles history. He has won the most games, regular season and playoffs. Having said that, are we collectively forgetting how well Andy Reid manages the last two minutes of clock each and every half of each and every week? Good coaches rarely make decisions that leave points on the field at the end of halves, yet Reid does it week in and week out. Andy Reid's playcalling and decision making is anything but dynamic. The fact that anyone can tell what kind of game the Eagles are about to play, whether it be an explosive show of talent or a frustrating 3 ½ hour mess, within the first 5 minutes of action speaks volumes to his rigidity and stubbornness.
Obviously, this is a blog, not a book, so I won't continue to rehash extemporaneous details just to fill up space, but I feel my point has been made, and that is that Andy Reid is as much to blame as Donovan McNabb for the Eagles failure to win a championship despite 10+ years of generally continued success. I believe that even if the Eagles are to part with McNabb this offseason, the same problems that have plagued the Birds for years will continue and eventually we will realize that it was the coach all along. By then, the divorce from Coach Reid will be messy, and surely set this franchise back a few years. Why not save ourselves the let-downs, the trouble, and the time and start over now?
Before I continue, allow me to set the record straight on some parameters for this discussion. First, I am fully aware that the Eagles likely will not get rid of both Andy Reid in the same offseason, and if we are only to get rid of one of them, obviously Donovan has to be the first on voted off the island. Second, I understand that Andy Reid is, by the numbers, a very successful coach who wins a lot of games. Finally, the definition of true success in the NFL is winning the Super Bowl.
In order to more clearly explain my opinion I will refute the most common arguments I’ve heard regarding this topic one by one
1. It’s Donovan McNabb’s fault, we need a new QB.
While I fully agree that Donovan McNabb has choked in some big games, I would like to point out that when Donovan plays poorly, it’s the same shortcoming that causes the meltdown every time, inaccuracy. Simply put, Donovan McNabb is not an accurate quarterback. He is athletic and strong-armed. This isn’t an opinion, it is fact drawn from a decade of live action data. Having said that, why does Andy Reid continue to put McNabb in situations that require accuracy to be successful? I am of the belief, and judging from his press conferences Andy Reid is as well, that it is the coach’s responsibility to put his players in the best possible position to win. This means capitalizing on the strengths of each player and doing all you can to avoid putting players in positions that could allow for weaknesses to be exploited. Being the QB, Donovan will touch the ball every play, so it would seem paramount to game plan around his strengths and weaknesses, yet the Eagles continue to employ an offense that emphasizes the biggest weakness in Donovan McNabb’s game! How can you place all of the blame on the guy when all he is doing is using the tools available to him, his skills, to carry out a game plan dictated to him by his coach, whose prime responsibility is to design a game plan that gives his players the best chance to succeed? McNabb’s situation isn’t the only example of Reid’s inability to put the right player in the right position. Remember the disaster that was Reno Mahe as a punt returner? That decision cost the Eagles at least one game directly that season. Blaine Bishop at safety back in 2002 is another example, as is starting Levon Kirkland about 7 years after his prime. In each case, and countless others, Reid ignored glaring weaknesses in each player and expected them to do something that their skill set would simply not allow them to do. In each case, the question needs to be asked, why couldn’t the Eagles adjust their game plan accordingly? It is easiest to ask this question in the case of McNabb as it has been an ongoing issue for about a decade now. In my best estimation, the Eagles may have already won a Super Bowl had Andy Reid changed his offensive philosophy to emphasize McNabb’s strengths, like his mobility and arm strength. Only one person carries the influence to cause a sea change in philosophy like this and that person is Andy Reid, and he hasn't done it yet.
2. Look at how well he has done with such little talent.
This one is easy. Andy Reid is in control of most player personnel decisions. I haven’t checked recently so his exact title may have changed, but Reid is most definitely the most influential voice in these decisions. Any perceived lack of talent is completely his fault. Remember when he insisted that the Eagles didn’t need an explosive, cream of the crop type talent at receiver?? Well, Mr. Reid did all of the work proving himself wrong on that one. This year, his decision to go with an Andrews Brothers youth movement likely cost the Eagles at least a deeper run into the playoffs if not more.
3. He is the best coach the Eagles have ever had.
And Beast Light is the best beer made by Milwaukee’s Best brand. Point is it’s easy to be the best Eagles coach ever when we’ve pretty much always had crappy coaches. By the numbers, yes, Andy Reid is the most successful coach in Eagles history. He has won the most games, regular season and playoffs. Having said that, are we collectively forgetting how well Andy Reid manages the last two minutes of clock each and every half of each and every week? Good coaches rarely make decisions that leave points on the field at the end of halves, yet Reid does it week in and week out. Andy Reid's playcalling and decision making is anything but dynamic. The fact that anyone can tell what kind of game the Eagles are about to play, whether it be an explosive show of talent or a frustrating 3 ½ hour mess, within the first 5 minutes of action speaks volumes to his rigidity and stubbornness.
Obviously, this is a blog, not a book, so I won't continue to rehash extemporaneous details just to fill up space, but I feel my point has been made, and that is that Andy Reid is as much to blame as Donovan McNabb for the Eagles failure to win a championship despite 10+ years of generally continued success. I believe that even if the Eagles are to part with McNabb this offseason, the same problems that have plagued the Birds for years will continue and eventually we will realize that it was the coach all along. By then, the divorce from Coach Reid will be messy, and surely set this franchise back a few years. Why not save ourselves the let-downs, the trouble, and the time and start over now?
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Birds Get Spanked, What's Next?
By this time, everyone knows what a debacle Saturday night was. It's been rehashed ad nauseum and, quite frankly, I don't want to even think about it. So I won't. Instead, I'll look to the future and try and figure out where the Birds go from here.
Due to the looming Collective Bargaining dispute between the league and the Players Association, things have never been more difficult to read in the NFL. As it stands now, next year's salary cap will be slightly lower than this year's, with 2011 then being an uncapped year. That uncapped year off in the distance will more than likely have huge influence on what the Eagles will do.
If you listen to the populace here in Philly, the call for Donovan McNabb to be run out of town has grown to an almost deafening roar. I've had conversations with people regarding his inability to be accurate, the fact that you never see Donovan studying snapshots of the defense or speaking on the phone with the guys upstairs, and, of course, his incessantly annoying laugh every time something bad happens. All of these are valid points. I think the bigger issue with Donovan is the fact that the Eagles seem unwilling to accept that he is not a West Coast QB. He can't consistently hit the underneath route, everyone knows this, yet Andy Ried seems unwilling to accept this and adjust. Because of this, I am not one to heap all of the blame on Donovan. How can you blame a guy for his coaches' inability to recognize his limitations? I am fairly sure that no matter where Donovan ends up, he will remain to be rather successful.
So what will happen with Donovan? His current deal runs through next year, making him a free agent just in time for the uncapped year. That fact alone, I believe, has to prevent the Eagles from bringing him back next year. Think of it this way... The Eagles could trade Donovan now, likely get a 2nd Round pick for him, or at least a larger package of mid round picks. Those draftees are generally inked to 3-5 year deals right after the draft, all at relatively low value as the players need to prove themselves. If the Eagles follow through with the trade, they can effectively cut Donovan loose at a time when not too many people would complain, AND get something of value in return for him.
Now consider if we keep Donovan for this final year of his contract. If he plays well, he will command a large salary on the open market, a large salary that the Eagles would be unlikely to be willing to match, thus allowing him to walk for nothing in return. If by some miracle Donovan guides the Eagles to the Promised Land, the organization would look terrible for letting him walk, and they would then owe him a pretty sum in order to keep him around and save some face in the public eye. By those calculations, keeping Donovan is a lose-lose propostition.
My suggestion? I believe the Eagles should trade Donovan McNabb to a team willing to part with a 3rd and 4th rounder next year, as well as a 5th rounder the following year. They should then release Mike Vick (no shock there) and offer Kevin Kolb a modest extension that says, "you're gonna get a few years to prove yourself as a starter, but we aren't giving you Pro Bowl money until you get there." They should then use one of the draft picks received for McNabb on an accurate college quarterback who can move in the pocket, but would still be considered a project. Said QB will become your 3rd QB on your roster. As for your backup, why not bring back Jeff Garcia or someone like that? All you need in your backup is a savvy vet who can come in and grind out victories.
If the Eagles follow my plan for their QB situation, it would also open up a ton of money for the uncapped year, giving the Eagles the opportunity to sign some big talent at prices higher than most teams would be willing to offer. I know its tough to part with arguably the best QB in franchise history, but the time is now.
Due to the looming Collective Bargaining dispute between the league and the Players Association, things have never been more difficult to read in the NFL. As it stands now, next year's salary cap will be slightly lower than this year's, with 2011 then being an uncapped year. That uncapped year off in the distance will more than likely have huge influence on what the Eagles will do.
If you listen to the populace here in Philly, the call for Donovan McNabb to be run out of town has grown to an almost deafening roar. I've had conversations with people regarding his inability to be accurate, the fact that you never see Donovan studying snapshots of the defense or speaking on the phone with the guys upstairs, and, of course, his incessantly annoying laugh every time something bad happens. All of these are valid points. I think the bigger issue with Donovan is the fact that the Eagles seem unwilling to accept that he is not a West Coast QB. He can't consistently hit the underneath route, everyone knows this, yet Andy Ried seems unwilling to accept this and adjust. Because of this, I am not one to heap all of the blame on Donovan. How can you blame a guy for his coaches' inability to recognize his limitations? I am fairly sure that no matter where Donovan ends up, he will remain to be rather successful.
So what will happen with Donovan? His current deal runs through next year, making him a free agent just in time for the uncapped year. That fact alone, I believe, has to prevent the Eagles from bringing him back next year. Think of it this way... The Eagles could trade Donovan now, likely get a 2nd Round pick for him, or at least a larger package of mid round picks. Those draftees are generally inked to 3-5 year deals right after the draft, all at relatively low value as the players need to prove themselves. If the Eagles follow through with the trade, they can effectively cut Donovan loose at a time when not too many people would complain, AND get something of value in return for him.
Now consider if we keep Donovan for this final year of his contract. If he plays well, he will command a large salary on the open market, a large salary that the Eagles would be unlikely to be willing to match, thus allowing him to walk for nothing in return. If by some miracle Donovan guides the Eagles to the Promised Land, the organization would look terrible for letting him walk, and they would then owe him a pretty sum in order to keep him around and save some face in the public eye. By those calculations, keeping Donovan is a lose-lose propostition.
My suggestion? I believe the Eagles should trade Donovan McNabb to a team willing to part with a 3rd and 4th rounder next year, as well as a 5th rounder the following year. They should then release Mike Vick (no shock there) and offer Kevin Kolb a modest extension that says, "you're gonna get a few years to prove yourself as a starter, but we aren't giving you Pro Bowl money until you get there." They should then use one of the draft picks received for McNabb on an accurate college quarterback who can move in the pocket, but would still be considered a project. Said QB will become your 3rd QB on your roster. As for your backup, why not bring back Jeff Garcia or someone like that? All you need in your backup is a savvy vet who can come in and grind out victories.
If the Eagles follow my plan for their QB situation, it would also open up a ton of money for the uncapped year, giving the Eagles the opportunity to sign some big talent at prices higher than most teams would be willing to offer. I know its tough to part with arguably the best QB in franchise history, but the time is now.
Friday, January 8, 2010
PLAYOFFS!?!?!?!?
The playoffs are here! While the end of NFL RedZone for the year leaves me with great sadness, it is the playoffs that keep me going. The lines for these picks are directly off of Bodog.com, so dont get mad at me if it is different from what you have....
Jets @ Bengals - In this game I am taking the Bengals at -3 and the over at 34.5. Why? The Jets destruction of the Bengals last week was a major tease for Jets fans. It was like being at a bar dancing with the hottest chick there, she seems into it, you're nailing all of your coolest dance moves, things are going great. You even get her number to hang out again next week. Then, you meet up a week later, find out that she was really just in the mood to dance last week, find out further that she was pretty hammered when she agreed to go out with you, and then, when you go to the bathroom, she sneaks out the door, crushing your hopes. This is how Jets fans will feel. Everyone is talking them up based on last week's performance, forgetting that 3 weeks ago, their own coach stuck a fork in 'em. Cincy will come out and be an entirely different team from the team the Jets saw last week, and the Jets won't have an answer readily available.
Bengals - 24 Jets - 13 *** caveat!: My pick for the over completely depends on the weather in Cincinnati, which has the potential to be -3 with 40 mph wind gusts if history is any indication. In that case, the over/under should be 3.
Ravens @ Pats - I am taking the Pats at -3.5 and the over at 43. Why? Lost in all the drama surrounding Wes Welker's season-ending injury is the fact that the role he plays in that offense isn't necessarily a difficult role to fill. Julian Edelman has shown, on several occasions this season, that he is capable of being a dependable receiver who runs excellent routes, which is really all Wes Welker is anyway. Remember, Welker wasn't The Great White Hope when he was with the Dolphins. He was just solid. Then he comes to NE, has Randy Moss clearing the underneath routes for him on every play, and all of a sudden he is irreplaceable. Not so fast, Bostonians. Welker's good, but you'll see that he's really just a cog in the system this weekend. The offense will play better than you expect and simply outscore the Ravens.
Pats - 38 Ravens - 24
Packers @ Cards - I am taking the Cards at +1.5 and the over at 47. Why? The Cards are in a similar situation as the Bengals. They laid down and took a beating last week, knowing full well the real game was coming up this weekend. Both teams in this matchup sport explosive offenses, and I've heard plenty about how good Aaron Rodgers is, but what about Kurt Warner? The man suddenly goes from being a solid pro QB during the regular season to a first ballot Hall of Famer during the playoffs. His receivers are better than the weaponry Rodgers has to choose from, as are his RB's, and the two defenses are about the same. Add to that the can of disrespect the Packers opened on the Cards last week in a meaningless game, home field advantage, AND the fact that my roommate is picking the Packers (he's a mush), and I think you have what should be a thrilling Cards victory.
Cards - 34 Packers - 28
Eagles @ Cowboys - I am taking the Birds at +4 and the under at 45. Why? For all the talk about these 2 offenses this season, there have only been 60 points scored in 2 games between these teams. The Cowboys defense is undeniably good. The Eagles will not be able to put up 35 points on 5 long TD's on this D. The Eagles need to adjust to utilizing more screens and draws to catch this aggressive D off guard, then take advantage when a big play presents itself. Having said that, I don't see them scoring more than 21 on the Cowboys, which brings us to the Eagles D. The Eagles D admittedly played conservatively last week, opting not to employ their aggressive blitz scheme. Romo and Co. got comfortable and, given the time they had to develop plays, it was no wonder the Birds couldn't stop the "Boys. However, especially with the game well in hand in the second half, you had to get the sense the Eagles were holding back, electing to save some sets and looks for this week. Everyone knows Romo is 3000% worse with pressure in his face, and everyone knows the Eagles D is predicated upon pressure. I expect the Eagles to come hard and fast this week, getting into Romo's head, and unraveling the Cowboys offense from there.
Eagles - 21 Cowboys -17
Jets @ Bengals - In this game I am taking the Bengals at -3 and the over at 34.5. Why? The Jets destruction of the Bengals last week was a major tease for Jets fans. It was like being at a bar dancing with the hottest chick there, she seems into it, you're nailing all of your coolest dance moves, things are going great. You even get her number to hang out again next week. Then, you meet up a week later, find out that she was really just in the mood to dance last week, find out further that she was pretty hammered when she agreed to go out with you, and then, when you go to the bathroom, she sneaks out the door, crushing your hopes. This is how Jets fans will feel. Everyone is talking them up based on last week's performance, forgetting that 3 weeks ago, their own coach stuck a fork in 'em. Cincy will come out and be an entirely different team from the team the Jets saw last week, and the Jets won't have an answer readily available.
Bengals - 24 Jets - 13 *** caveat!: My pick for the over completely depends on the weather in Cincinnati, which has the potential to be -3 with 40 mph wind gusts if history is any indication. In that case, the over/under should be 3.
Ravens @ Pats - I am taking the Pats at -3.5 and the over at 43. Why? Lost in all the drama surrounding Wes Welker's season-ending injury is the fact that the role he plays in that offense isn't necessarily a difficult role to fill. Julian Edelman has shown, on several occasions this season, that he is capable of being a dependable receiver who runs excellent routes, which is really all Wes Welker is anyway. Remember, Welker wasn't The Great White Hope when he was with the Dolphins. He was just solid. Then he comes to NE, has Randy Moss clearing the underneath routes for him on every play, and all of a sudden he is irreplaceable. Not so fast, Bostonians. Welker's good, but you'll see that he's really just a cog in the system this weekend. The offense will play better than you expect and simply outscore the Ravens.
Pats - 38 Ravens - 24
Packers @ Cards - I am taking the Cards at +1.5 and the over at 47. Why? The Cards are in a similar situation as the Bengals. They laid down and took a beating last week, knowing full well the real game was coming up this weekend. Both teams in this matchup sport explosive offenses, and I've heard plenty about how good Aaron Rodgers is, but what about Kurt Warner? The man suddenly goes from being a solid pro QB during the regular season to a first ballot Hall of Famer during the playoffs. His receivers are better than the weaponry Rodgers has to choose from, as are his RB's, and the two defenses are about the same. Add to that the can of disrespect the Packers opened on the Cards last week in a meaningless game, home field advantage, AND the fact that my roommate is picking the Packers (he's a mush), and I think you have what should be a thrilling Cards victory.
Cards - 34 Packers - 28
Eagles @ Cowboys - I am taking the Birds at +4 and the under at 45. Why? For all the talk about these 2 offenses this season, there have only been 60 points scored in 2 games between these teams. The Cowboys defense is undeniably good. The Eagles will not be able to put up 35 points on 5 long TD's on this D. The Eagles need to adjust to utilizing more screens and draws to catch this aggressive D off guard, then take advantage when a big play presents itself. Having said that, I don't see them scoring more than 21 on the Cowboys, which brings us to the Eagles D. The Eagles D admittedly played conservatively last week, opting not to employ their aggressive blitz scheme. Romo and Co. got comfortable and, given the time they had to develop plays, it was no wonder the Birds couldn't stop the "Boys. However, especially with the game well in hand in the second half, you had to get the sense the Eagles were holding back, electing to save some sets and looks for this week. Everyone knows Romo is 3000% worse with pressure in his face, and everyone knows the Eagles D is predicated upon pressure. I expect the Eagles to come hard and fast this week, getting into Romo's head, and unraveling the Cowboys offense from there.
Eagles - 21 Cowboys -17
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
Rebirth
Today marks a new beginning in PhillyPhanhood. I fell off the map for a while, distracted by golf, summer, beer, Jersey Shore, and overall laziness, but after much thought, it occured to me that I need to give myself this forum, regardless of whether it gets read or not.
Posting for the first time in almost 10 months, I find my beloved Eagles back in the playoffs, on the road in a wild card game. If you listen to the pundits and prognosticators, this game is over before it starts and Cowboys fans should probably start booking hotel accomodations in Miami. Thankfully, pundits and prognosticators are rarely right. As an Eagles fan, I know this is difficult to believe, but there were positives to be taken from Sunday's game. The Birds were, on several occasions, inches from the game-breaking big play we've grown accustomed to this year. Offensively, the reads were there, unfortunately the throws were not. That is not something that happens to the Eagles 2 weeks in a row. The Cowboys defense, while disruptive, has holes the Eagles can exploit. Defensively, the Eagles were put on their heels by a terrible call on the Cowboys' first drive and never really seemed to recover. They played less aggressively than normal, and, like the offense, missed by inches on several big plays that turned into even bigger plays for the Cowboys. All in all, the Eagles did not bring their A game last Sunday, the Cowboys did. I do not believe that the Cowboys can up their level of play any further, whereas the Eagles can improve drastically in all facets of the game. I think this weekend's game will be a lot closer than many are predicting. My game predictions will come Friday.
On to music... New Year's brought us a new decade and a huge Penn State win, but overlooked in all the celebrating was Chris Cornell's announcement that Soundgarden will reunite for a series of concerts this year. For the life of me, I cannot understand why people haven't been talking about this more. There were four bands mainly responsible for the global popularity of so-called "grunge" music: Soundgarden, Alice In Chains, Nirvana, and Pearl Jam. Pearl Jam is still, by all accounts, hugely popular. Alice In Chains is making a comeback after taking a hiatus due to the death of Layne Staley, however everyone knows that they are not really Alice In Chains without him so I can understand the lack of buzz surrounding their current tour, but nevertheless their original music is everywhere. Nirvana's music has lived on and is still hugely popular despite the death of Kurt Cobain. For some reason unbeknownst to me, Soundgarden has largely fallen off the radar so to speak. Rarely are Soundgarden's hits played on the radio, and if they are, the number of times they are played is drastically less than those of Pearl Jam, AIC, or Nirvana. All I've heard in regards to Cornell's announcement have been lukewarm side comments. As I remember it, Soundgarden's last album was highly anticipated with lots of pre-release press. They then announced they would take a break and the rest is history.
My question is this: What pushed Soundgarden to the bottom of the Big 4? Was it because there was no tragedy involved in their decision to break up? No martyred figure for the press to hail as a troubled genius, thus bringing the band's music into and stay within the conciousness of the general public? And if that is the case, is the music of Nirvana and the original AIC held in higher regard than it naturally would be?
All I know is that when I was young, Soundgarden was a big deal. Their music was of the same style and quality as the aformentioned bands whose success has withstood the test of time, yet Soundgarden has announced intentions to reunite with little fan fare, and few under the age of maybe 15 would know "Spoonman" or "Burden In My Hand" or even "Black Hole Sun". What happened??
Posting for the first time in almost 10 months, I find my beloved Eagles back in the playoffs, on the road in a wild card game. If you listen to the pundits and prognosticators, this game is over before it starts and Cowboys fans should probably start booking hotel accomodations in Miami. Thankfully, pundits and prognosticators are rarely right. As an Eagles fan, I know this is difficult to believe, but there were positives to be taken from Sunday's game. The Birds were, on several occasions, inches from the game-breaking big play we've grown accustomed to this year. Offensively, the reads were there, unfortunately the throws were not. That is not something that happens to the Eagles 2 weeks in a row. The Cowboys defense, while disruptive, has holes the Eagles can exploit. Defensively, the Eagles were put on their heels by a terrible call on the Cowboys' first drive and never really seemed to recover. They played less aggressively than normal, and, like the offense, missed by inches on several big plays that turned into even bigger plays for the Cowboys. All in all, the Eagles did not bring their A game last Sunday, the Cowboys did. I do not believe that the Cowboys can up their level of play any further, whereas the Eagles can improve drastically in all facets of the game. I think this weekend's game will be a lot closer than many are predicting. My game predictions will come Friday.
On to music... New Year's brought us a new decade and a huge Penn State win, but overlooked in all the celebrating was Chris Cornell's announcement that Soundgarden will reunite for a series of concerts this year. For the life of me, I cannot understand why people haven't been talking about this more. There were four bands mainly responsible for the global popularity of so-called "grunge" music: Soundgarden, Alice In Chains, Nirvana, and Pearl Jam. Pearl Jam is still, by all accounts, hugely popular. Alice In Chains is making a comeback after taking a hiatus due to the death of Layne Staley, however everyone knows that they are not really Alice In Chains without him so I can understand the lack of buzz surrounding their current tour, but nevertheless their original music is everywhere. Nirvana's music has lived on and is still hugely popular despite the death of Kurt Cobain. For some reason unbeknownst to me, Soundgarden has largely fallen off the radar so to speak. Rarely are Soundgarden's hits played on the radio, and if they are, the number of times they are played is drastically less than those of Pearl Jam, AIC, or Nirvana. All I've heard in regards to Cornell's announcement have been lukewarm side comments. As I remember it, Soundgarden's last album was highly anticipated with lots of pre-release press. They then announced they would take a break and the rest is history.
My question is this: What pushed Soundgarden to the bottom of the Big 4? Was it because there was no tragedy involved in their decision to break up? No martyred figure for the press to hail as a troubled genius, thus bringing the band's music into and stay within the conciousness of the general public? And if that is the case, is the music of Nirvana and the original AIC held in higher regard than it naturally would be?
All I know is that when I was young, Soundgarden was a big deal. Their music was of the same style and quality as the aformentioned bands whose success has withstood the test of time, yet Soundgarden has announced intentions to reunite with little fan fare, and few under the age of maybe 15 would know "Spoonman" or "Burden In My Hand" or even "Black Hole Sun". What happened??
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