Going to California...

As a forewarning, this post has nothing to do with sports. Believe it or not, from time to time I pay attention to things other than sports and can't help but analyze it. Being an economics major, the effect of abstract things like the weather, consumer opinion, and pretty much any other external influence on the economy is something I always seem to find interest in. Recent meteorological events got me thinking about the effect of the weather on the economy, so when another huge storm was forecasted for today, my interest was piqued to say the least. When said storm didn't cover a single roadway in my region with snow as of yet, it really got me thinking.

Aside from the sports, winter sucks. When I was young, I used to buy into the "it's wonderful to have four seasons" concept. In the midst of my 24th winter, I have reached the point where I hate winter. Despise it. Sure, one nice snowfall and all the fun things that come with it is great, but the 3-4 months of bone chilling cold isn't worth it.

Obviously, I'm not in any position to up and move to California, but one can dream. So I will continue to brave the elements and pray for spring. One thing that I will not continue to stand for, however, is these local news stations looking to boost ratings based on the threat a winter storm. This week, I was told to prepare for a "snowurricane", and I was ready for some ridiculous stuff. I expected not to be able to leave my house until at least Friday evening. I charged my phone as the power was obviously going to go out due to 90 mph wind gusts. I parked on a side street as I've learned that it is much easier to shovel out of, and maintain as your own, a side street parking spot. I was ready for these things because the news told me to be.

Granted, this winter has been unlike any ever seen before in this region and, generally, the news has been pretty accurate with their coverage of the monster storms that continue to pummel the region. Today's "snowurricane" harkens back to winters' past, however. Every year, there are numerous "dud" storms that were hyped up to be major winter events. Local news stations expand coverage, announcing round-the-clock coverage of the coming storm. Forecasters present computer generated possibilities, focusing on the worst-case scenario because, well, everyone wants to hear the worst-case scenario. People do ridiculous things like stock up on imperishable foods because, this time, we might not be able to get out for days! Today, at the sign of the first flake, schools closed, businesses sent people home early, and undoubtedly thousands of municipal workers were called in to work more overtime hours that municipalities simply cannot afford. I expended it to be downright insane for anyone to be on the road past 1 pm if the forecasts were to hold true.

Then, 1pm hit and the roads were clear. Don't worry, I was assured by the forecasters, you will need to lock yourself in your house by 3pm because it's going to be the craziest stuff you've ever seen... 3pm... clear roads. "Rush hour will be nuts!," they said. Rush hour... nothing. Here I sit, at 11pm, 10 HOURS after it was going to be completely unsafe to operate a vehicle, and the street outside my house shows no sign of snow.

In the midst of what has become a budget crisis for cities and municipalities across the country, predatory forecasting cannot be tolerated. The trumped up forecasts, ratings boons for the local news, cause a great amount of economic strain on regions already stretched to their limit. I call it predatory forecasting because the stations deliberately focus on the worst case scenario projections as they know the public will watch and thus, they will make more money than normal. It is predatory as what receives little mention is the projections that show just wet snow and strong winds for the region, cause for concern of course, but not for a complete shutdown, all in the name of profit.

Obviously, this year, things have been crazy, I will give you that. But consider just how much, over a ten year span, the local news stations completely miss forecasts much like today and the region reacts much like today. Some schools didn't even open this morning! Millions of dollars are lost in productivity as many stay home with their kids. As I mentioned earlier, townships and municipalities reach into their tax-payer padded pockets to preemptively call every man possible to work overtime to keep the roads clear, but on days like today, don't work at all. Consider all the money needed to bring these guys in to do nothing that could be spent on much needed infrastructure improvements. The economic effects are innumerable.

Given that the news is just as economically driven as any other industry in this capitalist economy, what can be done to change this? First, hold the news liable, at least in some way. The news, by their own definition, is to be unbiased coverage intended to keep their audience as well informed as possible, not paranoid. Townships and municipalities that lose millions to missed forecasts, especially when more-likely, less-doomsday scenarios are projected but not reported as heavily as the profitable, end-of-the-world forecasts, should be able to fine or sue news stations to recoup some of their losses. Second, require that several projections be reported so that the less profitable ones cannot be simply swept under the rug. Last, as a government, develop a more cohesive, more efficient plan for local reaction to storms that actually do hit. A little coordination can go a long way.

It is obviously highly unlikely that any of this will ever happen. News stations can simply point to the fact that forecasting is an impossible science. 100% is an impossible score. What they don't understand is that I'm not asking for 100%, just a little responsibility. They will claim that giving several possibilities for a forecast will simply confuse the public and cause apathy that will result in a region completely unprepared for a big storm. Sure, that sounds responsible enough, but how responsible is basically causing for there to be millions of dollars wasted across the region more often than preparing the region for an actual event? Governments will hee and haw over creating any kind of efficient, effective plan for weather catastrophes because that's what government in it's current form does.

In the end, the responsibility lies with the public to make these things happen. Create a stir that even the news has to report. Someone research and release data on the amount of money that is actually lost as the result of these irresponsible, profit-driven forecasts. It is now 2010. You cannot tell me it is acceptable for there to be up to 20 inches of snow forecasted, and not have an inch of accumulation. 6 inches off, I can understand. But 20?? If you watch the news, you can see what technology meteorologists have at their disposal. I know they can at least be moderately correct. Let's make them do it because it's what will most likely happen, not because it does or doesn't make a lot of money. Tonight, maybe everything will go absolutely wild and the forecast will have been half right, but no one can get back the day that was wasted today due to unfounded fear.

Dear Spring, hurry up and get here, I'm going crazy. Love, Ian